Beyond the Technology: The Social Reality of Green Hydrogen in Kazakhstan

Lecture by Dr. Nurlykhan Aljanova, NURCE — 2 April 2026

On 2 April 2026, Dr. Nurlykhan Aljanova delivered a lecture titled "Beyond the Technology: The Social and Institutional Reality of Green Hydrogen in Kazakhstan" for undergraduate students of the School of Humanities within the course Approaches to Global Development, taught by Dr. Philipp Schroeder at Nazarbayev University.

The lecture drew on findings from one of the most comprehensive qualitative studies of green hydrogen perceptions conducted to establish the social and institutional baseline for prospective hydrogen development in western Kazakhstan.

The central question framed it all: Kazakhstan has the wind, the sun, and the geography to become a major green hydrogen producer — so why is it not straightforward?

The technical tension: Producing one kilogram of hydrogen requires approximately nine litres of water. The Hyrasia One project alone would need an estimated 50 million cubic metres per year. In Mangystau, where almost no fresh water exists and the Caspian Sea is visibly retreating, this is not a technical footnote — it is the defining social and political reality of the entire energy transition.

Research design: A dual-track qualitative investigation combining 24 in-depth interviews with institutional stakeholders across four sectors (public authorities, private firms, civil society, and academic institutions) with 24 individual interviews and 8 focus group discussions with local residents in Aktau, Mangystau, and Atyrau. All conversations were conducted in Kazakh or Russian.

Key findings — Institutional side: Five recurring fault lines emerged: water and ecological constraints as a baseline condition; fragmented governance; doubts about whether benefits would remain local; gaps in skills and regulation; and a mismatch between political ambition and institutional readiness. Across all stakeholder groups, this resulted in cautious and conditional support.

Key findings — Community side: Public perception was structured in layers. At the centre were concerns about water, ecology, and health, shaped by the visible retreat of the Caspian Sea and comparisons to the Aral Sea. This was followed by issues of trust, influenced by past experiences with incomplete projects and limited consultation. The outer layer reflected conditional openness tied to the creation of long-term, locally accessible employment.

A central contribution of the lecture was the concept of legitimacy as a design constraint — the idea that public legitimacy is not a communication issue, but a structural condition that must be embedded from the outset. The notion of "trust fatigue" further explained declining public responsiveness, shaped by repeated announcements without visible results.

The lecture concluded with three core requirements for successful green hydrogen development: clear water provisions, defined governance structures, and verifiable local benefits — framed within a phased approach moving from foundational readiness to pilot projects, and only then to large-scale implementation.